Big Data-Driven Approaches to Geopolitical Risk and MNC De-risking Strategies

Abstract

The transition to a multipolar world has intensified geopolitical risks, challenging multinational companies (MNCs) to protect and adapt their global value chains (GVCs). These risks—ranging from resource scarcity and energy insecurity to techno-nationalism, cyber threats, and disrupted transport corridors—have prompted a shift toward proactive de-risking strategies. This study investigates how Big Data Analytics (BDA) supports such strategies, enabling MNCs to enhance visibility, resilience, and strategic agility. Using a conceptual-analytical method, the research first classifies geopolitical risks into three core categories: resource access disruptions, technological isolation, and transportation vulnerabilities. These risks are mapped to specific GVC activities to identify critical points of exposure. The analysis then explores the role of BDA in mitigating these risks, focusing on three core capabilities: real-time decision-making, predictive analytics, and scenario modelling. Key BDA-enabled strategies are identified across four domains: supplier and market diversification, dynamic risk assessment and contingency planning, real-time visibility, and local adaptation. Tools such as Resilinc, FourKites, Riskmethods, and digital twins are examined to demonstrate their relevance to specific geopolitical threats. The findings show that while BDA is commonly applied for efficiency and forecasting, its potential as a strategic enabler for geopolitical risk mitigation remains underutilised. By aligning BDA functionalities with core MNC de-risking strategies, this study offers a practical framework for integrating digital solutions into GVC risk management. It also highlights how the convergence of BDA with other Industry 4.0 technologies—such as IoT, blockchain, and GIS—can further enhance resilience. The results contribute to both academic discourse and managerial practice by demonstrating that BDA is not merely a supportive tool, but a central component of strategic planning in an increasingly unstable global environment.